Sun in the sky, you know what I mean

Sun in the sky. Birds in the trees. Lib Dems stuffing leaflets through doors.
"There's going to be a whopping turnout," I thought.
Then the lady at St Mary's Church Hall on Talbot Street told me they'd only had 35 voters in the first hour and I had to explain to the gentleman in the booth next to me why they had given him two pieces of paper.
"Perhaps not," I thought, on the way home.

East side story

Last day. Nearly there. Everyone's tired. Especially the Lib Dems. Their leader Mike German is today going back to his party's mid-Wales heartlands, campaigning with Mick Bates and Kirsty Williams. He's also knocking on doors in Wrexham. "Welsh Liberal Democrat campaign East Coast sweep," declares the press release. I'll let you spot the deliberate mistake there.

Boris the porker

Lots of mucky business down on the farm with David Cameron today. He met a pig called Boris the Boar who had recently fathered 13 piglets. Boris was lying in a bed of muddy straw when the Tory leader's attention was drawn to him.
"This Boris is responding to my commands, rather like the other Boris," he said, as he scratched Boris's back with a big stone.

Poll

Here's Labour's response to the ITV Wales/NOP tracker poll, which has Plaid overtaking the Tories

The choice in front of the people of Wales could not be clearer - a vote for Rhodri Morgan and Welsh Labour, with a coherent and properly costed programme of government, or a vote for the others which could very well result in Tory Ministers in charge of our schools and hospitals in a Plaid-led coalition.

No mention of the "Tory-led coalition" we've heard so much about. Will Labour turn its sizeable guns on Plaid in the last few days of the campaign?

Good sauce

Lots of source talk over lunch, as in who is the source of the BBC's story about a Labour-Plaid deal. Not sauce, as in mint.

Unsurprisingly, Labour politicians are apoplectic. The number of angry phone calls Peter Hain got from "parliamentary colleagues this morning has been quite phenomenal", I hear. One Labour AM told me that whoever has been speaking to BBC Wales can "crawl back under whatever stone they crawled out of".

Ian Rush was right about milk

You may have seen the Chancellor smashing a tennis ball across the playground during his visit to a primary school in Rhiwbina on Friday. Quite surreal. Cue jokes about where's Lord Levy when you need a tennis partner.

One little boy had earned two stars in class that day. Labour's Cardiff North candidate Sophie Howe told him his parents would be very pleased with him.

“You might get an extra glass of milk”, Rhodri Morgan added. An extra glass of milk? Not an extra half an hour on your Xbox 360 or an extra £1 to spend on sweets and football stickers, but an extra glass of milk. I wish I lived in a world where children still considered two glasses of milk to be a treat.

Coalition talks take their toll

:: Ieuan Wyn Jones just told Dragon's Eye that as well as not serving in a “Tory-led” Assembly Government, Plaid would also not “prop up Labour”. I had to get on the phone and ask a party PR to explain what the "propping-up" bit meant. It's deal or no deal, apparently. There would either have to be a formal coalition government or not – none of this “we will support you on that vote this week but not on this vote that week”. Does it matter? According to Peter Hain, Labour will not do business with Plaid anyway. All the various coalition permutations are getting a bit daft. More than once my newsdesk – who, like most human beings, are not following every twist and turn of this saga – have had to phone me back after I filed stories to clarify what the hell is going on. Does it make any difference if Ieuan says he's not keen on this “Tory-led” scenario? Will he still be Plaid's leader if the Tories thrash him into third place? I can't decide if there's a story in this, which is often a pretty good sign that there is not – a conclusion reinforced by the cold I have. Conserving energy for a big day tomorrow.

:: Wrote a story about minor parties today. Despite the BNP's manifesto striking a predictably displeased tone about the “influx” of “bogus asylum seekers” we are apparently experiencing, it contains a policy that would actually makes it easier to get into Wales – scrapping the toll on the Severn Bridge. Shurely shome mishtake.

:: Added a couple of new links today. The Echo has an election blog, with an interesting take on Alun Pugh's latest.

Warm bodies

I thoroughly recommend this Economist piece on the election. I particularly like the line about “warm bodies” needing to be selected ever four years to fill the Senedd.

In discussions about low voter turnout, one often hears that the media needs to “do its bit” and that getting more people to vote is a “challenge for all of us”. Declining turnout is a phenomenon across the democratised world, exacerbated at Assembly election time by the fact that so few people wanted devolution in the first place.

Frankly, if anyone thinks newspapers can propel more people to the polling stations by reviving the tradition of verbatim accounts of proceedings, they're having a laugh.

All things considered, the space and time given to Assembly politics by Wales's media is pretty fair. Wales's election has barely registered in the national press, while Scotland's is generating a lot of coverage and discussion. That's not because the media are unwilling to do their bit in Wales. It's because the media go where the stories are and there is a better story going on in Scotland.

Donde esta Lembit?

January 15. The WMC. Lib Dem pre-manifesto launch. Where's Lembit?
March 26. The WMC. Lib Dem official campaign launch. Where's Lembit?
April 5. The WMC. Lib Dem manifesto launch. Where's Lembit?
April 16. Found him! He's on holiday according to today's papers, wherein he is pictured playing table tennis with bikini-clad Gabriela in the sunshine. The Mirror quotes a "fellow holidaymaker in Majorca". But the Mail says its shots were taken "on an Easter break in the Canaries". Crikey! The boy gets about don't he? No wonder we couldn't find him.

Call to Arms

:: Went down the Arms Park to see the Blues slaughter Edinburgh yesterday. Found myself sat next to First Minister Rhodri Morgan. Man-of-the-people Morgan is often to be found cheering on his beloved Cardiff, whom he first saw play in 1946. He said he canvassed Wales forward coach Robin McBryde when he was out door-knocking in Tumble recently. The rugby-mad Labour leader asked McBryde why the national pack scrummaged so much better against England than it did against Scotland in the Six Nations. But would he vote Labour, I enquired? "To be honest we were so busy talking about the bloody scrum I forgot to ask who he was voting for."

:: Yes, not blogged for a while. Not that you will have missed me as no-one is concerned with any blog other than Arsembly at present. He/she was, you will have seen, the subject of a piece in Golwg last week. Therein it was speculated that Arsembly's alter ego is an election candidate with a close friend who works for the BBC. One name immediately springs to mind. "It's not me," he tells me. The search goes on. I confess that I - like all of Arsembly's readers - am desperate to know the identify of the Clark Kent behind this blogging Superman.

:: See that story in the Western Mail recently about how to dress tidy in order to win votes? I hope for his sake a certain Cabinet minister did. A Labour PR asked him to take off his duffel coat before going on the telly on the campaign trail recently. "If it's good enough for Michael Foot ... " he said, as he reluctantly disrobed.

The wrong trousers

:: Imagine driving to Caernarfon for Plaid's spring conference and realising half way there that your suit trousers and jacket don't match. If you can't imagine this, then ask the Plaid press office to describe it to you because it is an experience which befell one of its employees. Still, I suppose bringing the wrong trousers is better than forgetting to pack your pants, which is what one journalist is alleged to have done.

:: Update And if you've read this on Tomos Livingstone's blog, I would just like to say thanks to the RAC man who patched up the car so I could get back to Cardiff.

Mugging up on Cymraeg

:: At the Plaid conference. Plaid says it is in the shape of its life. Ieuan Wyn Jones has this theme that they have changed the party. There is a professional backroom operation, a new image, more cash and an unprecedented propensity for candidates to be on message. You might say it's all superficial – where is the changed ideology?
There may not be a Clause IV moment, but don't underestimate the changes they have made. In preparing for this weekend, I had a little look at Plaid's 2003 pre-election conference on the PA text library. Shambles (the conference, not the library). RMT leader Bob Crow was supposed to show up and address the faithful – but, embarrassingly, he pulled out hours before the speech. Mr Jones had to address everyone outdoors after a power cut plunged them into darkness.
The contrast with this year's slick performance could not be greater. Plaid's big challenge is to encourage people to “get beyond” independence and listen to their policies on health, education and the rest of it. This, Plaid claims, it has finally managed to achieve.

:: Plaid's conference is in Caernarfon. I like Caernarfon. As I'm fond of telling people, you can get mugged in Welsh in Caernarfon. It's the only town of its size I have been to where Welsh runs right throughout all of society. I went to school in the countryside where lots of people speak Welsh, and now I live in the city where lots of people don't. But Caernarfon has a bit of both. Only in Caernarfon have I ever had to tell a begger I didn't have any change ... in Welsh.

:: I passed no shortage of local hospitals to be saved on the drive up here from Cardiff. But, as I approached Builth Wells, I passed a roadside public convenience with the slogan “Save Our Toilets” painted on the roof. Not sure what that says about a town, but I didn't stop and use them.

Tuesday night fever

Were you in the Cardiff branch of 70s-themed nightspot Flares on Tuesday night? I wasn't, but I hear an incongruous cross-party group of AMs had a mid-week dance in there. If you saw them getting down to Abba and you want to tell us who they were, feel free to comment.

What is a pudding?

Feel free to add your definitions of "pudding" in the comments. I ask, because Plaid leader Ieuan Wyn Jones has given them up (and wine, although he admits to having a glass of red to celebrate Saturday's rugby) for lent. What was being discussed in the Assembly's tea room last night? Not what would be the Barnett consequential of today's Budget. Not whether Sir Michael Lyons should reinvigorate local democracy by recommending the abolition of capping on councils. But whether Ieuan would break his pledge for lent if he scoffed a toasted teacake and butter.

Spin in the car

Went to hear Rhodri Morgan give the last in a series of keynote speeches at Swansea University last night. It was the Centre for Public Policy's annual public lecture. At the same occasion in 2002, Mr Morgan gave his “clear red water” speech. Except he didn't, as he reminded his audience last night.

"I ran out of time and never actually delivered the words 'clear red water' that were in the speech,” he said.

The catchphrase was so widely spun beforehand that everyone reported it anyway.

This series of speeches has been vintage Morgan: patriotic rejoicing (“Wales can do it”); digs at New Labour (“beginning to show more than a few signs of age”); confounding use of English (“If that is the kind of climate shift we cannot avoid having by 2050, it is hardly going to be unhelpful to Wales's competitive position”).

Last night he said his final political amibition was to put the Assembly's new powers to good and early use if re-elected.

“We have got a new car. We are certainly not going to leave it in the garage.”

If I can extend the metaphor, it just remains to be seen if, when the garage door is pulled up on May 4, there is one of these inside ...

... or one of these ...

Designed ap Life

Isn't it quaint how the Assembly Government's health department names all its documents Designed for Something because they stem from that troublesome tome Designed for Life? It's reminiscent of the Welsh naming tradition of ap.

A quick scan shows we've had Designed to Tackle Cancer, Designed for North Wales, Designed to Deliver, Designed to Comply and Designed for People with Chronic Conditions. My favourite is Designed to Work. As opposed to what? Designed not to Work? Oh.

Economists baffled by five-day turnaround in Welsh economy

March 9, 2007: Work and Pensions Secretary John Hutton in an interview with PA on why there are higher rates of unemployment and incapacity benefit claims in the Valleys:

It's a historic reflection of the mass unemployment of the mid-80s and early '90s. I think we are still suffering from the effect of that.

March 14, 2007: Enterprise Minister Andrew Davies in an Assembly Government press release on the record high number of people working in Wales according to the Office for National Statistics:

With employment at a record high and a sharp fall in economic inactivity, these latest figures clearly show how we have removed the blight of mass unemployment which scarred our communities during the 1980s and 1990s.

On the RoPs

I love the Assembly's Record of Proceedings. If I wasn't a hack, I would like to have the job of compiling it.

Here's an exchange which was recorded on the live feed from Plenary last Wednesday, but I cannot find on the RoP. I fear Social Justice Minister Edwina Hart did not notice her microphone was on.

Presiding Officer: Item five, the motion to approve the home energy efficiency scheme. Minister, thank you.
Edwina Hart: Val [I think] can I have a couple of days off next week for canvassing ...
PO: Home energy? Minister?
EH: Yes, formally ... formally.
PO: Formally.
EH: I did say formally dear.

Tri as I might

Bloggers have noted how Assembly Cabinet ministers do not want Trident replaced, despite Captain Morgan's appeal for "noises off" not to cloud the election campaign.

On Sunday, I spoke to Education Minister Jane Davidson about her views. We had to carry out our telephone interview quickly because she was en route to the signal-less Brecon Beacons for a hike. We raced through the issues and after thanking her for her time she said a funny thing:

"And we actually got it through before I got to Lord Hereford's Knob."

If you are not familiar with the Black Mountains, then click here.

Further news of Lib Demary

I'm still at the Lib Dem conference.

:: The Lib Dems think the environment is the best thing ever and say we should all take public transport everywhere so we don't spew out horrible carbon dioxide with our ghastly cars.

That is unless you are going to the Welsh Lib Dem spring conference, which is in premises owned by the Driver and Vehicle Licensing Agency and is not on any public transport route. Delegates have complained about having to take taxis to get here as the site is serviced by neither bus nor train and is too far to walk or cycle from the city centre.

:: Some politicians speechify without notes. Some, like Rhodri Morgan, make very detailed notes but don't stick to them. Others have to have every dot and comma written out, complete with stage instructions, beforehand. Lib Dem Assembly leader Mike German appears to be one of these. Party PRs furnished us with copies of his address to conference before he took to the platform, wherein we noticed this passage:

"Plaid Cymru want 'free' lap-tops for school children. [roll eyes]"

I can confirm that Mike did indeed follow this pre-prepared piece of spontaneity to the letter.

On the disproportional representation of obscure policy

I'm at the Welsh Lib Dem conference.

I feel a bit sorry for the Lib Dems. They have got hundreds of whiz-bang policies which they say will make Wales a bloody better place. Except us in the media only want to talk about one - proportional representation. Which is a bit strange really. I mean, how many people in Wales's pubs are at this moment talking about proportional representation in local government elections? Probably none.

It is important because it could be a deal-breaker in coalition negotiations after May's election. Sir Menzies Campbell has received a bit of flack about it, with accusations that he could downgrade the policy so he can go into government with Gordon Brown in a hung parliament. No, says he. His commitment to it is "absolute".

The Welsh Lib Dems might have to drop it so they can do a deal with Rhodri Morgan in a hung Assembly. So their leader Mike German has come up with a form of words that is supposed to defuse the speculation. It is very important, but no more or less so than all those other blinding polices that will be in the Lib Dem manifesto, says he.

Except he is wrong. Kirsty Williams suggested it is less important when she addressed activists on Friday night. She said: "Not once has a constituent come up to me and said, 'Now then Kirsty Williams, when are we going to have fair votes for local elections?" Meanwhile on his blog, Peter Black says if a coalition deal was struck after May 3 that did not contain local PR "then the chances are that the deal would be rejected outright" by rank-and-file party members.

And that is the problem. Mike German cannot endorse a deal - he has to take it to the grass-roots who have the final say on coalitions. I'm convinced the reason why people join the Lib Dem party is simply because they can have a good old row about every aspect of party policy, unlike the corralled Labour and Tory foot soldiers ... unfortunately for Mr German and Sir Menzies.

More importantly, what has happened to my Lib Dem caption competition? The pictures have gone corrupt. I suspect foul play. I'm asking party officials and attendees here in Swansea if they are the responsible saboteur. So far I am yet to find the culprit.

Pic of the day

Not blogging a lot at the moment – I'm all tired because of the conferences. Lib Dems this weekend. They have been publishing a policy every working day in their "Pick of the day campaign". Feel free to enter the Lib Dem-themed "pic" of the day caption competition below.

Isn't it a strange quirk of the Assembly's electoral system that the leader of the smallest group – Lib Dem chief Mike German – is the politician most likely to be in government after May?

1. Cops dramatically widen cash-for-honours probe

2. Mysterious upsurge in Lib Dem vote explained by ballot stuffing

3. "Hands up if you think Ming Campbell is a smashing leader"

ChiPibell

Labour posted an interesting video attacking the Conservatives on YouTube today. Labour excitedly describes it as “too offensive for telly” and “a UK political first”.

The word “Labour” does not appear until the end, when viewers are asked to vote thus. Before that there is footage of striking miners, some of whom are carrying a big yellow Lib Dem banner.

An inadvertent sign of coalitions to come perhaps?

Don't go to Llandudno without a thong

The multiplication of uncomplimentary placards noticed by Mr Lyon and Felix Holt was one of several signs that the days of nomination and election were approaching.

Felix Holt, The Radical – George Eliot

I am fascinated by the presence of the phrase “flip flop” in the political lexicon as a term of abuse.

Tony Blair used it in his speech to the Welsh Labour annual conference. He told delegates withdrawing from the European social chapter was the only issue on which David Cameron's Conservatives had not flip flopped.

I'm not going to get involved in the wisdom or otherwise of withdrawing from the European social chapter. Putting that to one side, if flip flopping means changing your mind, what is so virtuous about never changing your mind that it deserves to be rewarded with votes?

Frankly, people who embrace evidence to the contrary of what they previously believed are just as deserving of praise. In certain circumstances such people are often called scientists, or sensible. Even Tony Blair acknowledges that Labour has had to jettison some of what it once believed to find a place in the modern world. In the same speech, he said that despite the “Labour values” that “we believe in - always have and always will”, there were times “in an economic sense” when “we didn't appear to have the answers for the future”.

There must be lots of people in Britain who thought Iraq was, on balance, worth invading, but who now think it has proved to be an overwhelmingly bad idea. Isn't it a bit nasty to marginalise them as flip floppers?

Anyway, in Australia flip flops are called “thongs” and how much more fun would it be to hear politicians accuse each other of “thonging” on policy?

Also at the Welsh Labour conference, I heard Enterprise Minister Andrew Davies's abilities get a ringing endorsement from trade union leader Andy Richards. The two used to work together at Ford. At a fringe event on the importance of the unions to the Labour Party, Mr Richards said Mr Davies was responsible for a lot of hard ministerial graft that went unseen. The T&G boss said that when you are in a “ruck” with a global company, trying to persuade it to keep factories open in Wales, it is no place for “thespians or rock stars”. Was he referring to someone in particular?

Strange goings on in Llandudno

Well, here we are in Llandudno for the Welsh Labour annual conference, where lots of people are slagging off the Tories because of some vote or other on May 3. Llandudno is like Wales's Bournemouth, but not as nice.

I've heard a lot of very, very strange things up here. One is “That'll be £16.20” when paying for three plates of fish and chips at Barnacles. (£16.20!)

But here are the two strangest things I've heard ...

The first came from Martin Eaglestone, Labour's Arfon candidate, when introducing Peter Hain at the conference platform: “He moves around quickly and achieves a lot.”

What?

The second came from a little black box on a lamppost: “Caution. Llandudno is a secure town.”

Is it?