Bound(ary) to happen

There's an interesting story knocking about on the wire today. Labour is likely to lose a seat thanks to boundary changes next year, research from Plymouth University suggests.

Conwy has become Aberconwy and has lost Labour votes.

Denise Idris Jones beat Plaid Cymru's Gareth Jones there by just 72 votes in 2003. Based on that year's vote Mr Jones will win the seat back in May. A tricky NHS reconfiguration (yes, another one of those) has done him a favour.

There's a Plaid-tabled vote on this in the Assembly tomorrow saying: “The National Assembly believes that no reconfiguration of hospital services should take place without adequately planned community provision.”

Surely nothing controversial for Labour AMs to oppose there then.

Anyway, the complex maths of the Assembly's top-up member system means victory for Mr Jones would be curtains for Janet Ryder and would create another regional Tory AM in the north. So one more Tory - 12 - and the same number of Plaid AMs - 12.

This is all based on the idea that everyone who voted three years ago votes the same way and no-one else votes, which obviously won't happen.

Nevertheless, it goes to show that without a stupendous surge in votes for Plaid, Dafydd Wigley's chances of getting elected as a regional member puts one in mind of a cat in hell.

Nightmare scenario for Plaid really - Labour do badly, but only the Tories capitalise.