Tuesday, February 06, 2007


Ron Davies – or rather Forward Wales - got 2,169 votes in Caerphilly in the 2004 Euro elections. That tally would have put him in fourth place behind the Conservatives in the previous year's Assembly election.

I'm not familiar with Caerphilly, so I really don't know if there is a large untapped sea of sympathy for him in its fortified streets. And it is difficult to see what, if any, effect his presence will have on the Plaid and Labour votes this year.

But I was surprised by the difference in turnout. Labour got 22,161 votes in 2004. That's similar to Wayne David's vote in the 2005 General Election (22,190) but near double what Jeff “Sleeping Soundly” Cuthbert got (11,893) in 2003.

Perhaps Ron's supporters would say that the people of Caerphilly feel disinclined to vote in elections to the Assembly unless the man so often credited as its architect stands.


Anonymous said...

Not sure about this Daniel but wouldn't the European figure be for the whole borough; Caerphilly, Islwyn and a part of Merthyr and Rhumney constituencies?

Tortoiseshell said...

Furthermore - surely care should be taken comparing 3 different types of election, in three different temporal and spatial contexts?

Caerphilly in 2007 will be a much more localised campaign than either the 2004 Euros or the 2005 General.

Low turnout, unpopularity of the incumbent govt. and Ron Davies' longevity as a former local MP, are all factors which will play in his favour.

A bit like the FA Cup, when the non-league side playing at home will inevitably hold the stronger league side in horrible weather conditions on a bumpy pitch.

Far too early to rule Ron Davies out of contention. Or, at least taking enough votes off Labour to make it a Lab/Plaid super-marginal.

Lindsay Whittle of Plaid has local popularity as a veteran campaigner. Plaid's vote held steady in 2003, and will probably do so again in 2007.